Exploring the resilience of the future electricity system

Contents

• Resilient low carbon networks
• In partnership with the NIC and the CCC
• Collecting data for extreme weather events
• Planning and adaptation for policy makers

The government has pledged to secure a decarbonised electricity system by 2035 as part of the ways to mitigate climate change. However, in the process of embracing renewables, there are concerns about the potential impact of a changing climate – and adverse weather –on these renewable sources of energy. 

Resilient low carbon networks

An increased reliance on renewable energy will almost certainly put pressure on existing networks and processes. Therefore, it’s important to strike a balance between investing more in renewables and ensuring costs to the consumer are manageable. At the same time, we need to ensure the supply of energy is not disrupted.  

Energy sector policy makers need to be provided with information on how renewables are affected by weather-related extremes so they can create resilient low carbon networks even in the most difficult conditions. 

In partnership with the NIC and the CCC

Alongside the National Infrastructure Commission (NIC) and the Climate Change Committee (CCC), the Met Office has developed a dataset of adverse weather scenarios that represent a range of possible extreme events, and the potential effects of climate change.  

It is important to emphasise that our research with NIC and CCC did not make value judgements about the desirability of greater reliance on renewable electricity systems. This allowed us to run a wide variety of scenarios to see how they would be affected. 

Collecting data for extreme weather events

The research has been given added impetus in recent years as recent extreme weather events have impacted on energy systems. For instance, extremely cold weather as a result of the so-called “Beast from the East” in 2018 raised demand for gas by 55%. If the energy supply had relied on renewable sources more, that might have impacted on the ability to meet demand – particularly if a wind drought had taken place at the same time. Wind ramping can also impact on energy supplies.

Another potential issue that needs addressing if the climate continues to warm will be meeting demand for air conditioning. During a heatwave, there are often long periods of wind drought. If, however, there is a period of warm summer days with clear skies and high winds, there could be a surplus of supply. This can also be challenging for energy distributors. On the other hand, if this takes place in Southern Europe, there is the potential for some of that surplus to be distributed to the UK. 

Our research team was able to analyse data sets for the past 30 years, and supplemented this with over 2000 years of using plausible simulations from physical climate models covering the UK and Europe. This allowed the team to sample a greater number of events, and to capture hypothetical events that could have plausibly occurred in the past.  

Planning and adaptation for policy makers

When looking to the future, the full extent of climate change might not be apparent for many decades as it depends on a number of variables, most obviously carbon emissions. Therefore the project used the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP) to assess the potential impact on renewables. 

Leading this research has been incredibly rewarding, and has reminded me of the amazing capacity of Met Office scientists to collate and process huge amounts of data. I hope that in sharing the results of our research, policy makers, energy modellers and electricity generators will be better prepared to ensure they are resilient enough to deal with adverse weather conditions. 

To access this freely available dataset, and read the full report, please visit: https://bit.ly/3CtH4S0