Following a couple of days with sunny spells and showers, the showers most prevalent across Scotland and northern England, conditions are likely to turn briefly more settled on Wednesday for most, before weather fronts slowly introduce more cloud and outbreaks of rain from the Atlantic later in the week. There is even a small risk of heavy rain and thunderstorms briefly affecting the south before these arrive.

The influence of low pressure hasn’t been far away from the UK in recent days, with a northerly airflow and cool air mass bringing showers and below average temperatures for the time of year.

However, a strengthening of the jet stream, generated by temperature contrasts in North America, will cause a shift in the UK’s weather this week, with a ridge of high pressure toppling across the UK ahead of frontal systems being driven along by the jet. The westerly wind will bring temperatures back up to average quite widely, and becoming above average in sunnier periods mid-week.

Met Office Deputy Chief Meteorologist Dan Harris said: “In stark contrast to the first half of June, where temperatures have widely been below average, we are expecting to see a steady uptick through the second half of this week, rising to around or above average, and it will likely feel very warm for those in the sunshine.

“This initial spell of warm conditions isn’t expected to last too long however, as it turns more changeable through Friday and into the weekend with areas of cloud and rain spilling east across the UK.”

Temperatures this week are likely peak at around 24°C or 25°C on Thursday and Friday in the south, though more subdued in the northwest, with the influence of cloud and showers at times more likely.

Further ahead

The weekend’s weather is expected to start with largely cloudy conditions, and possibly turning breezier too. Any rain or showers remain more likely in the north and west, with generally drier conditions further south and east.

A gradual trend towards more settled, and warmer weather is then likely into next week, with a small chance that this could persist for several days leading to a spell of hot weather with winds from the south or southeast. There are a number of other possible scenarios at this range, with details likely to become clearer through this week as we get nearer the event.