Temperatures have been on the rise for much of the UK in recent days and are likely to peak on Friday at around 28°C and remain stubbornly high in many areas overnight. The UK Health Security Agency has issued a Yellow Heat Health Alert, which is specifically aimed at the health and social care sector in England.

However, from later on Friday we will also see some heavy, at times thundery, rain for many, as active weather fronts move from the southwest to the northeast, clearing northern Scotland on Saturday afternoon. Details on the location of the heaviest rain are still being determined, and there’s a chance of Met Office warnings being issued with some potentially impactful rain on the way for some.

Strong and gusty easterly winds will develop ahead of the front, with a Yellow Warning issued on Friday for northern and western coastal areas of Wales, where wind gusts could very locally be in excess of 60mph, and more widely around 40-50mph.

Speaking in the Met Office’s YouTube series 10 Day Trend, Aidan McGivern said: “There’s an area of low-pressure to the west. This will orientate with the high pressure and will waft in some warmer air from the south in the next few days.

“Another area of low-pressure heads towards the UK at the start of Friday. The instability in the atmosphere will create a line of showers or even some thunderstorms and there could be some heavy downpours moving through central parts of the UK, though there is some uncertainty on the distribution.

“Where we do get some breaks in the cloud on Friday, it will still be a fairly warm day, though temperatures won’t be exceptional, and it will feel quite humid because of this southerly airflow.”

Met Office Deputy Chief Meteorologist Steven Keates added: “The main event arrives during Friday evening, with the potential for intense thunderstorms to break out over parts of England, bringing a lot of rain in a short period of time, along with the risk of hail and frequent lightning. At the same time heavy rain, initially arriving into the southwest, will fairly steadily move northeast, potentially bringing some substantial rainfall totals to parts of Northern Ireland and eastern Scotland in particular.”

Next week's weather

While the start of next week will likely see a mixture of sunshine and showers, there’s a possibility of hotter weather to come at times next week, especially in the south, though there’s still a large degree of uncertainty and much to be determined in the coming days.

Explaining the outlook, Aidan said: “At the end of the weekend, low pressure will be to the northwest of the UK, with higher pressure towards the south. That’s why it’ll be more showery further north, with fewer interludes of rain the further south and east you go.

“Through next week, the jet stream is likely to become more amplified, and when this happens we become more likely to see warm air across the continent push north during next week, though low pressure is more likely to be in charge in northern areas.

“However, we run models a number of times to get a sense of the confidence and what we’re seeing is a lot of spread in potential warmth next week, with quite a number of models runs dipping temperatures more towards average.”

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