‘Significant’ impacts from Tropical Storm Debby in United States – will it influence UK weather?

Author: Press Office

Tropical Storm Debby – which made landfall in northern Florida on Monday as a hurricane – will continue to impact eastern and southeastern parts of the United States in the coming days.

Debby will slowly drift north through the remainder this week, drawing in moist air from the Atlantic. Having already dropped up to 400mm rain over parts of Florida, it will produce incredibly high rainfall amounts for parts of Georgia and North and South Carolina.

Julian Heming is a tropical cyclone expert at the Met Office and has been tracking Debby’s progress. He said: “Tropical Storm Debby is likely to bring significant impacts to eastern parts of the United States. Moist air from the subtropical Atlantic is being drawn northwards by the storm and current forecasts suggest 200-400mm of rain will fall quite widely in the area, with parts of the Carolinas possibly seeing as much as 600mm of rain in the coming 3-5 days.

“Average annual rainfall at Charleston, South Carolina is around 1200-1300mm, so this means this region could see six months’ worth of rain fall within a few days.

“While confidence in the track of Debby decreases later in the week, the remnants of the storm are most likely to continue northwards on the eastern side of the United States, bringing a chance of continued heavy rain for the Eastern Seaboard over the weekend.”

Will Tropical Storm Debby affect the UK’s weather?

Tropical Storm Debby itself is likely to weaken and gradually break up later in the week and into the start of next week as its remnants continue to influence the weather in the far northeast of the United States and the far southeast of Canada.

While the storm itself won’t impact the UK, the influence of Debby does play a role in the UK’s medium-range forecast.

While this week’s weather continues a fairly changeable pattern, with influxes of rain from the west and northwest in the coming days, Debby’s influence on the UK’s weather is likely to be more of a background influence next from Sunday onwards, rather than directly impacting the UK.

Met Office Deputy Chief Meteorologist Nick Silkstone explained: “While Debby itself won’t reach the UK, the system and its remnants does play a role in the UK forecast next week, but chiefly as background influence on the shape and strength of the jet stream, which often plays a significant role in the weather we experience in the UK.

“Debby in North America will help to strengthen and veer the direction of the jet stream and this means this ribbon of air is likely to shift further to the south.”

“This southwards dip in the jet stream will likely be located across the mid-Atlantic this weekend and early next week, allowing southwesterly flow across the UK. During this time a hot and perhaps very hot airmass could develop and be advected into the southeast of the UK. On balance it now looks likely that temperatures will reach 30°C, with around a 30% chance that temperatures could reach the mid-30s Celsius early next week. Debby plays a role in developing this forecast hot spell.”

Even during this time though, the northern extent of the hot airmass, most likely across central or northern parts of the UK will likely see periods of heavy rainfall moving northeast, and within the hot airmass there is a chance of some severe thunderstorms breaking out.

Towards the middle of next week there’s plenty of uncertainty, but it is most probable that the dip in the jet stream will continue east, placing the UK on to the colder side of the jet. This would see the hot airmass become displaced, and eventually bring cooler and more changeable conditions. It could be unseasonably windy at times in some west and northwestern areas.

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