As this week starts off on an unsettled note for the weather, some are wondering when we might see something a bit more ‘summer-like’ in the forecast, and why meteorological summer has got off to such a seemingly drab start.
This week’s weather forecast follows a similar theme to many in recent weeks. Low pressure with accompanying rain is the dominant force in the UK’s forecast, with weather warnings already issued and the possibility of further warnings for some through the next few days.
Jason Kelly is a Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office and said: “After a damp afternoon on Monday, a heavier band of rain moves in from the southwest in the evening, and as it moves northwards, the area of low pressure driving this rain becomes the dominant feature over the next few days. Yellow warnings have been issued, with the initial focus in the south, before spreading further north in the coming days.”
As we look further ahead, there is a signal towards drier conditions overall by the weekend and although there should be some sunny spells, there will still be showers in places with temperatures generally below average for the time of year.
What’s behind the recent weather?
According to provisional Met Office figures, June started meteorological summer on a cool note, despite a late-month warm spell.
When you include the first week of July to look at summer so far, that cool theme has continued, with recent daytime maximum temperatures generally in the high teens or low 20s Celsius, with frequent periods of cloud and rain subduing the feeling of the weather for many.
When looking at the underlying patterns behind the UK’s weather, the jet stream plays a prominent role and that has been the case in recent weeks, as Met Office Deputy Chief Meteorologist David Hayter explained.
“The position of the jet stream, which is a ribbon of air high up in the atmosphere, is often the driving force behind the weather we experience in the UK,” said David.
“Just small shifts in the position of the jet stream can lead to big differences in the weather we experience on the ground. In recent weeks, the jet stream has been either directed towards the UK, or shifted further south, which has predominantly brought cooler air over the UK, with frequent incursions of some unseasonable winds and rain.
“For warm weather in the UK in summer, you’d tend to see the jet stream shifted further north, which allows the possibility of warmer air to drift over the UK from the south, though this isn’t always the case. Unfortunately for those who like the warmth, we have only had brief periods where this pattern has been present in summer so far.”
Any warmth to come?
While there will be some sunny spells for some later this week, temperatures remain likely to be either slightly below or around average for the time of year recovering slightly through the weekend or early next week.
Global drivers of the UK’s weather are somewhat weaker in meteorological summer, meaning that long-range forecasts come with some in-built uncertainty and can only talk about general trends in the outlook, despite the enthusiasm of some online newspaper headlines.
Met Office Deputy Chief Meteorologist David Hayter said: “While there’s much uncertainty in the forecast at this range, there are some subtle signs of a more settled spell possibly developing, at least for a time, in the second half of July. It’s far too early to give any details on how this could develop, so it’s important to stay up to date with the latest forecast. There also remains an ongoing chance of unsettled periods of weather and much will depend on the dominant conditions day-to-day as the forecast takes shape.”
Stay up to date with the latest in-depth forecasts and explanations on the Met Office’s YouTube, which features in-depth explorations of the weather, as well as the outlook for the next ten days.