Observed and forecast tracks: northern hemisphere 2020

Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from [email protected]. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.

North-west Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

Vongfong (01W)

11-16 May 965 mb, 105/80 knots

Forecasts for Vongfong had a left-of-track and slow bias resulting in track errors above the recent running mean value.

Nuri (02W)

12-14 June 996 mb, 35/40 knots

Nuri only briefly reached tropical storm status.

Hagupit (03W) 01-05 August 975 mb, 75/70 knots Track forecast errors were below the recent running mean.
Sinlaku (04W) 01-03 August 992 mb, 35/35 knots Sinlaku was only briefly a tropical storm.
Jangmi (05W) 08-10 August 996 mb, 40/45 knots Track forecast errors were low for this storm.
06W 09-13 August 1005 mb, 45/30 knots 06W was only briefly a tropical storm according to JTWC only.
Mekkhala (07W) 09-11 August 992 mb, 70/50 knots Mekkhala was a tropical storm for only about 24 hours.
Higos (08W) 17-19 August 992 mb, 55/55 knots Higos was a tropical storm for only about 24 hours.
Bavi (09W) 21-27 August 950 mb, 95/85 knots Track forecast errors were mostly lower than the recent running mean error value.
Maysak (10W) 28 August-02 September 935 mb, 125/95 knots Track forecast errors were mostly close to or below the recent running mean.
Haishen (11W) 31 August-07 September 920 mb, 135/100 knots Track forecast errors were mostly low and skill scores high for this typhoon.
12W 11-12 September 1003 mb, 30/- knots No forecasts were verified for this tropical depression.
Noul (13W) 15-18 September 992 mb, 45/45 knots Track forecast errors were better at longer lead times than shorter for this storm.
Dolphin (14W) 20-24 September 975 mb, 60/60 knots There was a left-of-track bias meaning track forecast errors were large.
Kujira (15W) 26-30 September 980 mb, 65/60 knots Track forecasts were exceptionally good for this storm.
Chan-hom (16W) 04-12 October 965 mb, 80/70 knots There was a left-of-track bias resulting in errors above the recent mean.
Linfa (17W) 10-11 October 996 mb, 40/40 knots Linfa was a short-lived storm and few forecasts were verified.
Nangka (18W) 11-14 October 990 mb, 50/45 knots Track forecast errors were near the recent mean.
Saudel (19W) 19-25 October 965 mb, 85/75 knots Track forecast errors were low and skill scores high for this storm.
20W 20-21 October 1001 mb, 30/- knots 20W did not achieve tropical storm status.
Molave (21W) 24-28 October 950 mb, 110/85 knots Track forecasts, including those for landfall, were excellent with very low forecast errors.
Goni (22W) 28 October-06 November 905 mb, 170/120 knots Track forecast errors were near to or below the recent mean for Goni, although there was a right-of-track and fast bias in forecasts.
Atsani (23W) 29 October-07 November 994 mb, 55/50 knots Track forecast errors were close to or above the recent mean. There was a left-of-track bias in forecasts.
Etau (24W) 08-10 November 992 mb, 40/45 knots Etau was only briefly a tropical storm.
Vamco (25W) 08-15 November 950 mb, 115/85 knots Track forecast errors were low and skill scores high for this typhoon.
Krovanh (26W) 20-22 December 1000 mb, 30/35 knots No forecasts were verified for Krovanh since it was not designated a tropical storm based on 1-minute average winds.

North-west observed tracks in 2020

Tropical cyclone names

North-east Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

01E

25-26 April

1006 mb, 30 knots

01E was the earliest tropical cyclone to form in this region in the modern record, but did not reach tropical storm status.

Amanda (02E)

30-31 May 1003 mb, 35 knots

Amanda was only briefly a tropical storm and no forecasts were verified.

Boris (03E)

24-27 June 1005 mb, 35 knots

Boris was only briefly a tropical storm and no forecasts were verified.

04E

30 June 1004 mb, 30 knots

04E did not achieve tropical storm status.

Cristina (05E)

06-13 July 993 mb, 60 knots

No forecasts were verified for this tropical depression.

06E

13-14 July 1006 mb, 30 knots

No forecasts were verified for this tropical depression.

07E

20-21 July 1006 mb, 35 knots

No forecasts were verified for what was classified as a tropical depression in real time. In post season reanalysis 07E was upgraded to a tropical storm.

Douglas (08E)

20-29 July 954 mb, 115 knots

Track forecast errors were very low for this hurricane, particularly at shorter lead times. For example, 3- and 4-day errors were less than half of the 5-year running mean for this basin. The period of rapid intensification was not well predicted, but the gradual weakening thereafter was well predicted.

Elida (09E) 09-13 August 975 mb, 85 knots Track forecasts had a left-of-track bias resulting in errors a little above the recent running mean.
10E 13-16 August 1004 mb, 30 knots No forecasts were verified for this tropical depression.
Fausto (11E) 16-17 August 1004 mb, 35 knots Fausto only briefly attained tropical storm status.
Genevieve (12E) 16-21 August 950 mb, 115 knots There was a left-of-track bias resulting in errors above the recent running mean.
Hernan (13E) 26-28 August 1001 mb, 40 knots Hernan was only a tropical storm for about 24 hours.
Iselle (14E) 26-30 August 997 mb, 50 knots Track forecast errors were mostly close to the recent running mean.
Julio (15E) 05-07 September 1003 mb, 40 knots Julio was short-lived and no forecasts were verified.
Karina (16E) 13-17 September 996 mb, 50 knots Karina's track was well forecast with low errors.
Lowell (17E) 20-25 September 999 mb, 45 knots Lowell's track was well forecast with low errors.
Marie (18E) 29 September-07 October 948 mb, 115 knots Track forecast errors were low at short lead times, but above the recent mean at longer lead times.
Norbert (19E) 05-15 October 1001 mb, 45 knots Norbert was short-lived with few forecasts verified.
Odalys (20E) 03-06 November 1000 mb, 45 knots Odalys was a fairly short-lived storm. Track forecast errors were near to the recent mean.
Polo (21E) 17-19 November 1004 mb, 40 knots Polo was only briefly a tropical storm.
Central North Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates Central Pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

 

   

 

North-east and Central North Pacific observed tracks in 2020

Tropical cyclone names (North-east Pacific)

Tropical cyclone names (Central North Pacific)

North Atlantic
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

Arthur (01L)

16-19 May 989 mb, 55 knots

Track forecasts for Arthur were very low.

Bertha (02L)

27-28 May 1007 mb, 40 knots

Bertha was only briefly a tropical storm and no forecasts were verified.

Cristobal (03L)

01-08 June 994 mb, 50 knots

Track forecast errors were variable. There was a slow bias an right-of-track bias at longer lead times.

Dolly (04L)

22-24 June 1002 mb, 40 knots

Dolly was only briefly a tropical storm.

Edouard (05L)

04-06 July 1005 mb, 40 knots

Edouard was short-lived as a storm and only one 12-hour forecast was verified.

Fay (06L)

09-11 July 998 mb, 50 knots

Fay was relatively short-lived as a tropical storm. Track forecasts were a little slow.

Gonzalo (07L)

21-25 July 997 mb, 55 knots

Track forecast errors were near to or a little above the recent mean values.

Hanna (08L)

23-27 July 973 mb, 75 knots

Track forecast errors were low for this hurricane. The rate of intensification close to landfall was not captured.

Isaias (09L) 30 July-05 August 987 mb, 75 knots Track forecast errors were above the recent running mean value due to a slow bias.
10L 31 July-02 August 1007 mb, 30 knots No forecasts were verified for this tropical depression.
Josephine (11L) 12-16 August 1005 mb, 40 knots Forecasts were weak for Josephine and only a few were trackable in the model.
Kyle (12L) 14-16 August 1000 mb, 45 knots Kyle was a tropical storm for only about 24 hours.
Laura (13L) 20-28 August 938 mb, 130 knots Track forecast errors were near to the recent running mean at short lead times, but below the mean at most longer lead times. There was a slight westward bias in landfall location, except for the earliest forecasts.
Marco (14L) 20-25 August 991 mb, 65 knots There was a left-of-track bias in forecasts resulting in errors larger than the recent running mean. However, the model predicted the weakening before landfall due to wind shear well.
Omar (15L) 31 August-05 September 1003 mb, 35 knots Omar was a short-lived tropical storm and only one forecast was verified.
Nana (16L) 01-04 September 994 mb, 65 knots The model struggled to give a good representation of Nana, which was a small scale hurricane.
Paulette (17L) 07-23 September 965 mb, 90 knots Track forecast errors were above the recent running mean values, mostly due to a slow bias in forecasts. Skill scores at shorter lead times were high, though.
Rene (18L) 07-14 September 1000 mb, 45 knots Track forecast errors were low at short lead times, but larger at longer lead times due to a right-of-track bias.
Sally (19L) 11-17 September 967 mb, 90 knots Although there was a left-of-track bias for some forecasts, the track forecast errors were lower than the recent running mean.
Teddy (20L) 12-23 September 945 mb, 120 knots Teddy was generally very well forecast with track forecast errors below the recent running mean.
Vicky (21L) 14-17 September 1002 mb, 45 knots Track errors were low for this storm
Wilfred (23L) 18-21 September 1007 mb, 35 knots Wilfred's track forecast errors were near the recent running mean errors.
Alpha (24L) 18-19 September 998 mb, 40 knots Alpha was only named for a short while so no forecasts were verified. However, its development from a non-tropical depression system was well forecast.
Beta (22L) 17-22 September 994 mb, 50 knots Track forecast errors were low and forecasts of landfall were mostly good.
Gamma (25L) 02-06 October 980 mb, 60 knots Track forecast errors were mixed for this storm.
Delta (26L) 04-10 October 956 mb, 120 knots Track forecast errors were low and skill scores high. Landfall over the USA was well predicted.
Epsilon (27L) 19-26 October 952 mb, 100 knots The track of Hurricane Epsilon was very well predicted. Track forecast errors were low, apart from at the longest lead times.
Zeta (28L) 24-29 October 970 mb, 95 knots There was a slow and slight left-of-track bias meaning track forecast errors were above the recent mean value.
Eta (29L) 31 October-13 November 923 mb, 130 knots Track forecast errors for Eta were very large. This was due to two factors; the predicted westward movement after landfall over Central America and the slow movement over the Gulf of Mexico when Eta actually turned north-eastwards. Despite the large track errors up to 72-hours the track forecast skill scores were high.
Theta (30L) 10-15 November 989 mb, 60 knots Track forecast errors were mostly a little above the recent mean due to a slow bias.
Iota (31L) 13-18 November 917 mb, 140 knots Track foecast errors were very low for Hurricane Iota. Moderate intensification was predicted, but the rapid intensification rate which occurred was not captured.

North Atlantic observed tracks in 2020

Tropical cyclone names

North Indian
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/3-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

Amphan (01B)

16-21 May 901 mb, 145/125 knots

Track forecasts were below the recent running mean for this storm. There was a slight fast bias.

Nisarga (02A)

02-03 June 975 mb, 75/55 knots

Nisarga was only briefly classified as a tropical storm.

Gati (03A) 21-23 November 967 mb, 100/75 knots There was a right-of-track bias in forecasts for Gati and the extremely rapid intensification was completely missed by the global model.
Nivar (04B) 23-26 November 980 mb, 70/65 knots Track forecast errors for Nivar were low.
Burevi (05B) 01-04 December 996 mb, 45/45 knots Track forecast errors were near to the recent mean values.

North Indian observed tracks in 2020

Tropical cyclone names

Mediterranean
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Ianos (01M) 15-20 September 988 mb, 60 knots The formation, development and track of this storm in the Mediterranean were mostly well predicted by the model.
02M 20-22 November 1007 mb, 35 knots This system in the Mediterranean only briefly attained a strength which would qualify it as a tropical or subtropical storm.
03M 14-17 December 999 mb, 50 knots The formation and track of this storm was well predicted.

Note, there is no official warning agency for Mediterranean tropical or subtropical cyclones, so identifiers are assigned by the Met Office to facilitate tracking and forecast verification.

Mediterranean observed tracks in 2020

Note on estimated wind speeds

1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1 minute (JTWC Hawaii, NHC Miami, CPHC Hawaii)

3-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 3 minutes (IMD New Delhi)

10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (JMA Japan)


Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 3-/10-minute averages, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres using different analysis techniques.