Observed and forecast tracks: northern hemisphere 2024

Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from [email protected]. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.

North-west Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Ewiniar (01W) 24-31 May 980 mb, 95/70 knots Track forecast errors were low compared to the recent mean values.
Maliksi (02W) 31 May-01 June 998 mb, 30/35 knots Although named by JMA, JTWC held 02W at tropical depression status. No forecasts were verified.
03W 14-15 July 1000 mb, 30/30 knots 03W did not attain tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified.
Prapiroon (04W) 19-23 July 980 mb, 60/60 knots Track forecast errors were close to the recent mean values.
Gaemi (05W) 19-27 July 940 mb, 125/90 knots Beyond 48 hours, track forecast errors were considerably below the recent mean values. Landfall on Taiwan was well predicted.
Maria (06W) 07-12 August 980 mb, 70/55 knots Track forecast errors were below the recent mean values at short lead times, but longer lead time errors were larger.
Son-tinh (07W) 11-13 August 994 mb, 40/35 knots Son-tinh was short-lived and few forecasts were verified.
Ampil (08W) 12-19 August 950 mb, 115/85 knots Track forecast errors were mostly near to or below the recent mean values.
Wukong (09W) 13-15 August 1002 mb, 30/35 knots Wukong was a short-lived tropical storm according to JMA, but did not even attain tropical storm status according to JTWC.
Jongdari (10W) 18-20 August 998 mb, 35/40 knots Jongdari was only briefly a tropical storm.
Shanshan (11W) 21 August - 01 September 935 mb, 115/95 knots Short lead time track forecast errors were near to the recent mean, but longer lead time errors were very large due to a fast bias. At these times the slow down and decay of the storm over Japan were not well predicted.

North-west observed tracks in 2024

Tropical cyclone names

North-east Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

Aletta (01E)

04-06 July 1005 mb, 35 knots Aletta was a short-lived storm and no forecasts were verified.
Bud (02E) 24-26 July 1000 mb, 50 knots Bud was short-lived. Track forecast errors were near to the recent mean values.
Carlotta (03E) 31 July - 06 August 979 mb, 80 knots There was a slight fast bias in some forecasts. Track errors were near to or above the recent mean values.
Daniel (04E) 03-06 August 1005 mb, 35 knots Track forecast errors were near to the recent mean values.
Emilia (05E) 04-09 August 988 mb, 60 knots Forecasts had a left-of-track bias resulting in errors larger than the recent mean values.
Fabio (06E) 05-07 August 993 mb, 55 knots Fabio was a short-lived storm.
Gilma (07E) 18-30 August 949 mb, 115 knots Track forecast errors were variable during the lifetime of the storm. There was a fast and right-of-track bias at longer forecast times.
Hector (08E) 25-29 August 1000 mb, 45 knots Track forecast errors were mostly near to the recent mean values.

 

Central North Pacific

Name & ID Start & end dates Central Pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

Hone (01C)

22 August - 01 September 988 mb, 75 knots Track forecast errors were near to or below the recent mean values. There was a left-of-track bias in some forecasts.

North-east and Central North Pacific observed tracks in 2024

Tropical cyclone names (Central North Pacific)

North Atlantic
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

Alberto (01L)

19-20 June 993 mb, 45 knots Alberto was a short-lived tropical storm.
Beryl (02L) 28 June - 11 July 935 mb, 145 knots Track forecast errors were close to the recent mean values at most lead times, but were low at longer lead times. The track was well forecast through the Caribbean, but there was a left-of-track bias in forecasts as Beryl moved into the Gulf of Mexico.
Chris (03L) 30 June - 01 July 1005 mb, 35 knots Chris was short-lived and no forecasts were verified.
Debby (04L) 03-09 August 979 mb, 70 knots Track forecast errors were mostly below the recent mean values.
Ernesto (05L) 12-20 August 968 mb, 85 knots Track forecast errors were mostly low, although at longer lead times there was a slow bias resulting in larger errors.

North Atlantic observed tracks in 2024

Tropical cyclone names

North Indian
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/3-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

Remal (01B)

25-27 May 978 mb, 55/60 knots Track errors were near to the recent mean values.
Asna (02A) 30 August - 02 September 989 mb, 45/40 knots Track forecast errors were low for this unusual August storm.

North Indian observed tracks in 2024

Tropical cyclone names

Mediterranean
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Avgi (01M) 01-02 February 1013 mb, 40 knots Avgi was short-lived as a tropical storm and few forecasts were verified.

Note, there is no official warning agency for Mediterranean tropical or subtropical cyclones, so identifiers are assigned by the Met Office to facilitate tracking and forecast verification.

Mediterranean observed tracks in 2024

Note on estimated wind speeds

1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1 minute (JTWC Hawaii, NHC Miami, CPHC Hawaii)

3-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 3 minutes (IMD New Delhi)

10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (JMA Japan)


Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 3-/10-minute averages, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres using different analysis techniques.