Observed and forecast tracks: southern hemisphere 2012-13

Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from [email protected]. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.

South-West Indian (west of 90°E)
Name & ID Start & end dates 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Anais (01S) 12-18 October 100/105 knots There was a slight right-of-track bias in forecasts, but track errors were below last season's average for this storm.
Boldwin (02S) 24-26 November 55/55 knots Boldwin was fairly short-lived and the model did not analyse or forecast it well.
Claudia (03S) 06-13 December 105/90 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores high for this storm.
Dumile (07S) 30 December-05 January 70/70 knots Forecast for Dumile were very good with low track forecast errors and high skill scores.
Emang (09S) 13-17 January 35/35 knots Emang only briefly reached tropical storm status and only one forecast was verified.
Felleng (13S) 26 January- 03 February 115/90 knots Felleng was well predicted by the global model. Track errors were lower than last season's average and skill scores positive.
Gino (15S) 11-15 February 85/75 knots Track forecast errors for Gino were very low and skill scores very high.
Haruna (16S) 19-25 February 100/80 knots The landfall of Haruna was well predicted. Track forecast errors were low.
Imelda (21S) 06-16 April 85/75 knots Despite predicting too sharp a recurvature of this storm, track forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores were positive.
Jamala (24S) 08-11 May 45/35 knots Jamala was only briefly a tropical storm.
Tropical cyclone names

South-West Indian observed tracks in 2012-13
 

Australian (90-160°E)
Name & ID Start & end dates 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Mitchell (06S) 11-19 December 45/40 knots Mitchell was short-lived, but what few forecasts were verified had a right-of-track and slow bias.
Narelle (08S) 07-14 January 115/100 knots There was a left of track bias in forecasts resulting in some predictions of landfall which did not occur. However, track forecast errors at short lead times were still below last season's average.
Oswald (11P) 21-22 January 35/35 knots Oswald was only briefly classified as a tropical storm and no forecasts were verified. However, the model predicted the movement of the remnant low down the Queensland coast very well - a track which resulted in heavy rain and flooding.
Peta (12S) 22-23 January 35/35 knots Peta was only briefly a tropical storm and no forecasts were verified.
Rusty (17S) 23-28 February 95/90 knots Track forecast errors were very low and skill scores high for this storm.
18S 24-27 February 40/30 knots 18S did not reach tropical storm strength according to BoM Australia and no forecasts were verified.
Sandra (19P) 07-14 March 110/100 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores high for this storm. There was a slight left-of-track bias.
Tim (20P) 13-17 March 55/50 knots Track forecast errors were below last season's average and skill scores high for this storm.
Victoria (22S) 09-12 April 80/75 knots Track forecast errors were near to last season's average for this straight-running storm.
Zane (23P) 30 April-02 May 60/60 knots Track forecast errors were above last season's average for this storm.
Tropical cyclone names

 

Fiji (east of 160°E)
Name & ID Start & end dates 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Evan (04P) 11-19 December 115/100 knots The global model did a good job in predicting Evan's track towards Samoa and its turn back towards Fiji. There was a right-of-track bias in later forecasts, but track errors were still below last season's average overall.
Freda (05P) 28 December-02 January 105/100 knots Forecasts had a marked slow and right-of-track bias resulting in large track forecast errors.
Garry (10P) 20-27 January 85/80 knots There was a slow bias in forecasts for Garry, but track forecast errors were near to or below last season's average.
Haley (14P) 10-11 February 45/40 knots Haley was short-lived, but track forecast errors were low.

Tropical cyclone names


Western Australian observed tracks in 2012-13

Eastern Australian observed tracks in 2012-13

 

Note on estimated wind speeds

1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1 minute (JTWC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (Southern Hemisphere RSMCs and TCWCs)

Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres.