Observed and forecast tracks: southern hemisphere 2021-22
All tropical cyclones in the southern hemisphere season in 2021-22 are listed below including details of their start and end dates, lowest central pressure and maximum sustained wind (MSW).
Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from [email protected]. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ana (07S) | 22-25 January | 990 mb, 50/45 knots | Ana was briefly classified as a tropical storm with few forecasts verified. |
| Batsirai (08S) | 27 January - 08 February | 934 mb, 125/105 knots | Track forecast errors were mostly below the recent mean values, although there was a left-of-track bias in some forecasts. |
| Cliff (10S) | 04-06 February | 994 mb, 45/40 knots | Track forecast errors were high mostly due to a slow initial forecast. |
| Dumako (12S) | 13-15 February | 993 mb, 50/45 knots | Track forecast errors were a little above the recent mean values. |
| Emnati (13S) | 15-24 February | 947 mb, 115/95 knots | Track forecast errors were very low apart from long lead times which were near to the recent mean values. Long lead time forecasts had a right-of-track bias which resulted in landfall predictions too far north in Madagascar. |
| Fezile (97S) | 16-18 February | 980 mb, 30/45 knots | No forecasts were verified for Fezile. |
| 16S | 25-27 February | 989 mb, 40/30 knots | 16S was a short-lived storm which underwent Fujiwhara interaction with Vernon before being absorbed. |
| Gombe (19S) | 07-12 March | 960 mb, 100/90 knots | Track forecast errors were below the recent mean. |
| Halima (22S) | 23 March-01 April | 939 mb, 120/105 knots | Apart from the early forecasts, track forecast errors were low and the unusual track was well predicted. |
| Issa (92S) | 12-13 April | 986 mb, 40/50 knots | Track forecast errors were a little above the recent mean values. |
| Jasmine (24S) | 23-27 April | 982 mb, 55/60 knots | Track forecast errors were high for this storm due to a tendency to slow and turn the storm back north. |
| Karim (25S) | 06-11 May | 982 mb, 60/55 knots | Track forecast errors were a little higher than the recent mean values due to a left-of-track bias. |
South-west Indian observed tracks in 2021-22
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22-24 November | 995 mb, 40/40 knots | Track forecast errors were low for this storm. | |
| Teratai (02S) | 01-09 December | 1003 mb, 35/35 knots | Teratai was only briefly a tropical storm with track forecasts a little slow. |
| Ruby (03P) | 10-15 December | 975 mb, 70/60 knots | Track forecasts were slow resulting in large errors. |
| Seth (04P) | 31 December - 02 January | 983 mb, 55/50 knots | Seth was only briefly a tropical storm. |
| Tiffany (06P) | 09-12 January | 989 mb, 65/50 knots | Track forecasts were mostly near to or below the recent mean values. |
| 09P | 31 January - 03 February | 995 mb, 35/35 knots | 09P was short-lived with few forecasts verified. |
| Vernon (14S) | 24 February - 04 March | 950 mb, 115/105 knots | Track forecast errors were near to or below the recent mean. The turn south was well predicted. |
| Anika (15S) | 25 February - 02 March | 986 mb, 55/50 knots | There was a slow bias in forecasts. Track forecast errors were near to or above the recent mean. |
| 17S | 02-03 March | 986 mb, 55/50 knots | There was a slow bias in forecasts. Track forecast errors were near to or above the recent mean. |
| Billy (20S) | 13-17 March | 991 mb, 60/45 knots | Track forecast errors were low for this storm. |
| Charlotte (21S) | 20-24 March | 956 mb, 90/90 knots | Track forecast errors were mixed for this storm. |
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cody (05P) | 08-14 January | 971 mb, 50/70 knots | Track forecast errors were mostly below the recent mean values. |
| Dovi (11P) | 09-11 February | 940 mb, 90/95 knots | Track forecast errors were below the recent mean values. |
| Eva (18P) | 03-04 March | 995 mb, 40/35 knots | The track of this short-lived storm was well forecast. |
| Fili (23P) | 04-08 April | 977 mb, 55/60 knots | Track forecast errors were above the recent mean values. |
| Gina (26P) | 18-21 May | 998 mb, 35/40 knots | A right-of-track bias produced track errors a little higher than the recent mean values. |
Western Australian observed tracks in 2021-22
Eastern Australian observed tracks in 2021-22
| Name & ID | Start & end dates | Central pressure, 10-minute MSW | Comments on Met Office global model forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 December | 996 mb, 35 knots | Uba was a short-lived subtropical storm with few forecasts verified. | |
| Yakecan (02Q) | 17-20 May | 990 mb, -/50 knots | The track of Yakecan was well predicted by the global model. |
South Atlantic observed tracks in 2021-22
Note on estimated wind speeds
1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over one minute (JTWC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (Southern Hemisphere RSMCs and TCWCs)
Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres using different analysis techniques.
