Intensive testbed: Daily updates 2025

The intensive testbed with its main hub in Zambia and centres in Mozambique and South Africa, hit the ground running on 30 January 2025.

Interactive testbed: Daily update 30 January 2025

The WISER EWSA team onsite in Zambia as part of the intensive testbed divided their efforts with the majority of the technical team, comprising forecasters and meteorologists, working with the Zambia Meteorological Department (ZMD), and the community engagement specialists, selected forecasters, and community observers visiting Chinika Secondary School in Kanyama.

The technical programme started with reminders to the team of the overall strategy of WISER EWSA and the testbed’s context. Also highlighted were the importance of international collaboration for advancing both science and applications; the adoption of new technologies for improving forecasts and warnings in southern Africa, and the crucial role of weather information and community co-production in adapting to a changing climate.

The team produced the first synoptic forecasts and nowcasts – sent every two hours. The morning’s forecasts predicted some heavy rainfall for Kanyama. While the team at ZMD experienced two brief but heavy showers during the morning, the Kanyama community observers reported that they experienced only light rain. This led to a discussion about how spatially accurate a nowcast can be based on the available products and the nature of the convective rainfall. The technical team concluded that the impacts of a given amount of rainfall will be felt differently and perhaps this should be considered more so than the geographical difference in the products cross-city, which is inherently fast-changing and uncertain.

Nowcasts were sent every two hours during the day.

At Chinika Secondary School, the community engagement team met with senior geography learners and their teacher. The team met these learners on a previous visit in August 2024 and was impressed with their articulation of the weather-related challenges experienced in their area and their enthusiasm to find solutions for these.

The learners made the best of the opportunity to ask questions regarding the weather and why weather forecasts sometimes do not “come true”. They also shared how severe weather impacts them.

Two of the community observers who accompanied the team explained their role in sharing weather-related information in their communities as well as their contribution of on-the-ground feedback to the technical team regarding the veracity of nowcasts. The learners were keen to join the WhatsApp group to receive nowcasts and to be able to give feedback. They were also clear about the role they could play in sharing weather-related information with their families, the elderly and people with disabilities.

The session ended with the learners giving input into an educational resource planned by WISER EWSA for placement in classrooms. They suggested focus areas and shared their views on the visual appearance of the poster.

Intensive testbed: Daily update, 31 January 2025

The technical meeting of the intensive testbed in Zambia continued its work in determining points for improvement or difficulties and also successes that should be maintained in future testbeds.

Lessons learnt on this day included the importance of an effective handover between the night and day teams to ensure that messages and nowcasts continue to be sent on time.

The quality of nowcast images was also scrutinised as some images were not clear. The team applied a new method for downloading images to circumvent this problem.

Puseletso Mofokeng from SAWS gave a talk on supercell case studies which focused on examples of supercell development over Zambia, related to topography.

Further discussions during the day concentrated on the time to produce the nowcast without inadvertently neglecting the time needed for other components such as meteorological elements. Adding voice notes to nowcasts was also being explored for those with sight disabilities. To further ensure accessibility, the team considers sending these voice notes in the vernacular (Nyanja in the case of Zambia).

On the community engagement side, 23 community members from Chinika Ward 11 with four Satellite Disaster Management Committee (SDMC) members from the same ward, participated in the community hub in Kanyama during the morning. The group had a high proportion of women of various ages and a high proportion of persons with disabilities (mobility, sight and hearing).

An introduction to the project was followed by a presentation by a Zambia Meteorological Department forecaster on the weather and climate, how forecasts are generated and an overview of the meteorological product and services in Zambia and how to access these.

This was the first time the community members interacted with a forecaster and their questions centred on the accuracy (and perceived inaccuracy) of weather information, the need to share such information more broadly, and the importance of receiving a forecast in their local language. Questions were also asked about what to do to protect oneself in a thunderstorm from lightning. Only a minority of participants use weather forecasts, which they receive from the radio and television, with some stating that they simply observe the sky.

A subsequent groupwork exercise had participants discussing and analysing examples of nowcasts and impact-based forecasts issued by Zambia, Mozambique and South Africa during the king-size testbed (since 1st October 2024). They shared what they understood from these examples and reflected on what was not clear and where improvements were needed. Some insights include:

Visual imagery and graphics are useful, particularly for those who cannot read.
Maps showing the location of the expected weather are useful.
While the impact table from the impact-based forecast was not well understood, the use of traffic light risk levels was well understood and appreciated.
Participants liked the inclusion of recommendations and advisories in the impact-based examples.
Participants suggested communication in local languages and the inclusion of voice notes to ensure broader inclusivity.

This programme was repeated in the afternoon with a new cohort of community members not familiar with the programme. Twenty-four community members (20 women, and including people with mobility, sight and hearing disabilities) from Makeni Villa Ward 14 attended.

This group’s feedback on the nowcasting examples was similar to that of the first group. They also felt that:

The section on data sources was considered irrelevant to the general public as they did not understand it and could not relate to it.
For a particular alert, the warning alert level was 6 but the colour was yellow which didn’t correspond with the IBF matrix or a similar alert issued by ZMD for level 6, which was orange.
Warning-level numbers are difficult to understand without explanation or a key.

Intensive testbed: Daily update, 1 February 2025

The synoptic forecast for the third day of the intensive testbed indicated an intensive nowcasting event (INE) for Lusaka, Zambia.

The technical team compared different products showing similar rainfall patterns with a false alarm in Kanyama. Localised rainfall in parts of Lusaka, and a need for formal verification using surface observations (provided by the community observers).

During the afternoon, the team discussed the nowcasting warning which did not include Lusaka district. The MTG lightning data confirmed that it should have been, indicating a missed event, while observed impacts deviated from predictions, and ROA performed better at a 1-hour lead time than at 2 hours. This led to good discussions about the region of interest, and how to assess the impact, as well as considering the difficulty of the nowcast given the rapid change of the storm.

The community engagement team joined the SDMC members who are playing the role of community mobilisers on guided tours of three Kanyama wards: Chinika ward 11, Kanyama ward 13 and Makeni Villa ward 14. Rain started towards the end of each visit, and highlighted how relatively light rain can rapidly lead to overflowing drainage channels and flooded roads.

In Chinika ward 11, the SDMC members briefed the team about the water challenges experienced. Water is supplied in big water tanks. When it is flooded around the tap there is no access to clean water, and the stagnant water is a risk for cholera and other diseases. The team could interact with people with disabilities along the route as well as the chairperson of a group for persons living with disabilities to learn more about the challenges they experience and invite them to the WISER EWSA meetings the following week. The chairperson said that special phones are given for transmitting messages to their members by SMS.

In general, a lot of people do not understand the importance of good weather forecasting. In the past, there have been issues with reliability, and conversations suggested that education on weather forecasting would get people more interested.

One SDMC member observed that the WISER EWSA project is having a positive effect on people’s trust in forecasts. Forecasts are available on radio twice daily, but most people consider that phones and social media are the best communication channels, while recognising the need for adaptations to increase inclusivity through, for example, voice notes.

In Kanyama ward 13, the team met with several community members and discussed weather information.

The mother of a boy with a hearing disability who cannot speak, explained how she receives weather information from various channels and communicates it to her son. She is a member of a WhatsApp group which sends written test and voice notes, however, this requires her to be connected to the internet, which is not always possible. When her phone is off, she observes the clouds to determine the weather.

A middle-aged widow with six children explained that when it rains, water enters her house, and when they have to walk through flooded streets, they are at risk of developing sores on their feet and between their toes. She receives weather information when there is electricity, but otherwise observes the clouds to determine weather.

The team also observed the WISER EWSA weather awareness-raising posters at the Aunty Mercy Lodge and the clinic.

In Makeni Villa ward 14, the team spoke with residents from two households, including persons with disabilities. These residents explained that they had been receiving weather information from the SDMCs and community observers, which they found valuable as it helps them plan their activities better – for instance, avoiding travel or trips to the shops when rain is forecasted, as it can lead to flooding and difficult conditions for travel.

As with the other areas visited, some streets were flooded or partially flooded. Since the roads are unpaved, they become extremely muddy and difficult to walk on. Additionally, many roads are uneven and contain sharp stones, which become hidden under floodwaters, making them particularly hazardous for people with mobility impairments. Despite these challenges, many residents still have to cross these flooded streets.

The team also observed open sewers that are often poorly maintained and clogged with waste materials. Some small drainage ditches have recently been dug through social work programmes in an attempt to channel rainwater off the roads and properties, but these channels are often incomplete, leading to stagnant water accumulation. During heavy rainfall, they appear insufficient to prevent flooding, contributing to health and sanitation risks.

Weather forecasts, nowcasts, and early warnings help community members take action to prepare for impactful weather events. However, walking through this ward made it evident that addressing flooding problems requires proper drainage systems, to effectively mitigate flood risks.

Intensive testbed: Daily update, 2 February 2025

On the technical side, the nowcasting team issued its first voice messages in English (and one in Nyanja). The feedback from the community observers who received these messages for verification was positive.

A highlight was the team’s focus on impact-based nowcasts. These add value to the end users of weather information, helping them to prepare appropriately for the weather event.

The technical team issued nowcasts for Zambia and Mozambique with suitable impact warnings. Nowcast products’ performance was compared but the team found that more surface-based observations were needed for formal verification (e.g. rain gauge, AWS, radar).

The community engagement team took the Satellite Disaster Management Committee members (the SDMCs) who are performing the role of community mobilisers, out of Kanyama. The purpose was to undertake interviews for the forthcoming video and also to find out more about how they have individually been undertaking their roles as community mobilisers.

Overall, the utility of weather information is widely appreciated. When commencing their roles, most were not accessing weather information at all. However, there are now many examples of how they are using the forecasts and nowcasts that they receive to alter daily activity patterns, commercial activities, and agricultural practices. As part of the expanded mobiliser role in the king-size testbed, the SDMCs have also been actively spreading weather messages around their communities. Many report positive reactions and increasing demand, with neighbours and relatives approaching them to know what the weather is going to be. Furthermore, they also report increasing reliability of weather information from ZMD.

Interviews will be continuing throughout the rest of the intensive testbed.

Intensive testbed: Daily update, 3 February 2025

For the Zambian nowcast during the morning, the technical team used manual rain gauge data at Monsu and Solwezi to evaluate the nowcast. Regarding the products tested, CRR produced larger values than recorded at Solwezi and the ROA measurement was closer.

Forward projections using CNN core showed good results and were particularly better at predictions after 1800 LT in the southern regions. The team discussed how the impacts in regions outside Kanyama could be evaluated. ZMD manages about 14 WhatsApp groups in different areas that could be leveraged and data from several rain gauges are available.

The Mozambican nowcast evaluation showed, among others, that the CRR projected well spatially but the intensity was greater in the prediction. The ROA projections were better than the CRR projections.

The team discussed how the warning levels are identified as well as the need for more products to be evaluated, potentially using the 24-hour accumulations from the manual station data. Also being considered is suggesting a district to enable easier colouring of the region.

The technical team raised a concern about the time it takes to complete the nowcasting template and more work is needed to simplify this important task.

Feedback from the observers was discussed and included simplifying the message content by removing unnecessary details such as the data sources; making the warnings available in local languages and using images for those who cannot read. The community observers also requested more training to improve understanding.

At the end of the first week of the intensive testbed, the team noted the following highlights:

ZMD introduced voice notes in English, Nyanja, and other local languages, to disseminate nowcasts, improving the accessibility of weather information for a broader audience.
Nowcasting teams are utilizing a diverse range of forecasting products, including CRR, RDT, RoA, and Lightning data, to enhance the accuracy of nowcasts.
Forecasters from ZMD and INAM are actively engaged in evaluating nowcasts, contributing to improving forecast accuracy.
The evaluation team is conducting:
- Cross-validation of retrieval products against rain gauge data to assess accuracy.
- Assessment of forward prediction models (CRR, RoA) to understand their performance and limitations in capturing nowcasted events.
- Analysis of AI-driven nowcasting models, including Jawairaa’s CNN-based nowcast of convective cores, to evaluate their effectiveness in predicting convective rainfall development.
- Evaluation of the king-size testbed (from 1 October 2024 to 27 January 2025) is underway to assess the effectiveness of nowcasting operations during this period.

On the community engagement side, 33 community members from Kanyama ward 13 (20 female and 13 male, including people with mobility, sight and hearing disabilities), with 10 Satellite Disaster Management Committee (SDMC) members (who play the role of community mobilisers) participated in the community hub in Kanyama. The group was joined by representatives of intermediary and end-user organisations (11 female and 6 male), including the Zambia Association of Persons with Disabilities, the Zambia Federation of the Deaf, Youth and Disability Inclusion, and the Ward Development Committees for both Kanyama ward 13 and Makeni Villa ward 14.

After an introduction to the project, a Zambia Meteorological Department forecaster presented an introduction to the weather and climate, how forecasts are generated and an overview of the meteorological products and services in Zambia and how to access them. There was a subsequent discussion on the nature of data and observations used to generate forecasts, and reasons why forecasts can change over time (e.g. why the seasonal forecast evolves over the season).

This was followed by a groupwork exercise similar to the exercises held on 31 January.

As in similar exercises earlier in the intensive testbed, groups were not always clear on the meaning of symbols (e.g. for rain and thunderstorms) or the colour coding in the impact table. The satellite image in the example from SAWS was not clear, and neither was the language of likelihood (in contrast to the impact tables). In the Mozambique example, groups felt there was too much information. Several participants highlighted that text and images should be larger, noting also the special accessibility needs of people with disabilities.

The ideal presentation according to the groups includes, among others, a combination of text and visuals. Text would be most useful in English and local languages, and visuals are most useful when there is a legend. One group also highlighted the wish to see a clearer separation of the time and amount of rainfall.

In the afternoon session, two community engagement leads in South Africa and Mozambique presented their experiences in Katlehong and Boane, respectively. Before the end of the testbed, the SDMCs will prepare a reciprocal presentation on their experience to be shared with their counterparts in South Africa and Mozambique.

Intensive testbed: Daily update, 4 February 2025

The nowcast evaluated by the technical team for Zambia during the morning focused on smaller areas in the 16-18Z nowcast. The AWS for Livingstone showed that both ROA and CRR overestimated rainfall. The overlaying of ROA and MTG showed some agreements in the central and northern parts of the eastern province. Livingstone also had much lightning activity.

Looking at the products during the nowcast window, HSAF again showed greater ROA for rain rates. Projections started with MTG comparison to nowcast. Lightning was not indicated on the map for Livingstone, but it was observed.

HSAF correlated with the nowcast, but ROA was much more conservative.

Both ROA and HSAF accumulations over 24 hours showed general agreement spatially, but HSAF overestimated.

A team member pointed out that MTG Lightning measures cloud-to-cloud lightning as well as cloud-to-ground, which makes the impact difficult to assess.

In the afternoon, the Zambian nowcast evaluation showed no rain reported in Kanyama. CRR showed heavy rain in the western province that was not picked up in the nowcast.

Rain developed along the convergence line in the central regions, which was not picked up in the nowcast by CRR, RDT and ROA.

The forward projection of CRR understated the evolution of convection along the convergence line, which aligns with the nowcast prediction, but it was missed due to initiations.

The nowcast evaluated for Mozambique in the morning checked the products half an hour before the event (ROA) to motivate nowcast areas. The team used a three-hour accumulation from 10-13 LT. The warning matched rain accumulation, but it could have been given for a larger area. The Zambezia province warning was accurate due to the high risk of flooding caused by the proximity to the river.

The community hub saw 15 of the Satellite Disaster Management Committee (SDMC) members (who play the role of community mobilisers) participate in a half-day session in Kanyama.

The SDMCs consolidated their recommendations for the ideal nowcast and impact-based forecast formulations and developed their own fictional nowcasts that applied the presentational features that they found useful.

The fictional nowcasts all contained the key attributes that had been preferred. This includes a combination of text and visuals (typically a map, and use of symbols to indicate weather), use of the impact-based table (with a key), use of traffic light colour to indicate risk levels, prominent headers on the level of the warning, clear recommendations/advisories and use of two languages (English and Nyanja). It was noted that there are seven major language groups in Zambia and, ideally, information should be available in all these languages to ensure universal accessibility.

These ‘nowcasts’ will be presented to the technical team at the main hub at ZMD.

Intensive testbed: Daily update, 5 February 2025

The community hub joined the technical team for the day to see the different testbed components – the synoptic forecasters, the nowcast team, and the evaluation team – in action.

The 16 Satellite Disaster Management Committee (SDMC) members (who play the role of community mobilisers) attended the open day held on the 5^th of February. The formal proceedings included presentations from ZMD director Mr Edson Nkonde, Acting Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Green Economy and Environment Mr Rainford Simumbwe, and WISER EWSA representatives Hellen Msemo (WMO) and John Marsham (University of Leeds).

Simumbwe said, “This testbed, which began on January 27^th until the 7^th of February 2025, marks a significant step in our efforts to enhance Zambia's ability to deliver timely, accurate and actionable weather forecasts to serve the diverse needs of our people.

“I'm happy to note that the activities of the testbed are already well underway and our dedicated experts and stakeholders are actively engaged in exploring, testing and refining cutting-edge nowcasting products. These will significantly strengthen our weather forecasting capabilities, particularly in short-term forecasting where speed and accuracy are essential.

“The implementation of advanced nowcasting weather forecasts forms part of Zambia's comprehensive climate adaptation strategy. It significantly enhances our ability to provide real-time, relevant and localised weather information that empowers individuals, communities and decision-makers to make informed choices across critical sector sectors, such as agriculture, health, and aviation, but most importantly, in disaster preparedness and response.”

He said this technology is vital in helping the country predict and prepare for extreme weather events such as severe storms, torrential rains, flash floods, and prolonged droughts. All of these can have a devastating impact on communities, livelihoods, and infrastructure.

“Zambia is therefore rightfully proud to be among the leading nations in the region in the development and implementation of nowcasting weather forecasts. It builds on the solid foundation led by the successful hosting of the first testbed in early 2024. We are now advancing our capabilities with this second and more focused testbed.”

He closed with a key question to stakeholders as the project nears its conclusion, “Every project has an end, are we going to be able to sustain the accurate and timely dissemination of information, beyond the life cycle of the project so that we can remain resilient and continue our activities?”

The official proceedings were followed by tours of the nowcasting and synoptic forecasting testbed stations. This provided the SDMCs with the opportunity to gain insights into the process of analysing data to inform product development, understand the challenges of predicting rainfall at high resolution, and appreciate the process of generating the information that is then received on their cellphones.

In the afternoon, the SDMC members presented their example nowcasts and lists of recommendations developed the previous day. Comments included commendations for closing the feedback loop in the co-production process and for the level of understanding of weather and early warnings shown by the SDMCs. Discussions focused on:

Clarification on the use of Common Alert Protocol messaging in Zambia (which forecasters confirmed is applied);
The nature of a key for the impact table;
The scope of training received by the SDMCs, which includes sessions from forecasters during the intensive testbed and other sessions throughout the king-size and intensive testbeds, and training by the DMMU (the Zambian disaster management organisation) on their roles as SDMCs);
Whether there would be scope in Kanyama for the police to disseminate messages through loudspeakers on vehicles (this was refuted because the police in Kanyama only have one vehicle which is already overstretched); and
How and to whom nowcasts are further disseminated (through word of mouth, WhatsApp and meetings in churches).

The final session of the day was a refresher on safeguarding (standards for acceptable behaviour) and culminated in collective agreement on principles to guide the work and interactions of the SDMCs.

Intensive testbed: Daily update, 6 February 2025

The technical and community hub teams spent the day together on 6 February. The community hub lead presented some of the work done with and in the community of Kanyama to further the reach of WISER EWSA. One technical coordinator noted, “Their [the community hub] work has focused on deepening our understanding of the local people, to identify their needs and requirements for receiving weather information.”

Ensuring that local languages are considered in meetings and information supplied to the community has been a key tenet throughout the project. In Kanyama, the languages in order of preference are Nyanja, English, and Bomba.

Feedback was given about interviews conducted with several industry sectors in all three EWSA countries (Mozambique, South Africa, and Zambia). Across all sectors, data are used for planning, preparation, and management. Respondents said that the data assist with planning, preparation, management, and daily decision-making ranging from whether to continue fishing or agricultural-related tasks.

Key considerations regarding the suitability of information confirmed what the community hub conversations also raised: accessibility of information to people with, for example, sight disabilities; language barriers; forecast accuracy; high-resolution information or different variables, for example, wind speed for crop spraying; and the need for information to be given timely.

Respondents felt that nowcasts were not particularly useful for the planting of crops (earlier discussions identified that nowcasts might be useful for tasks such as spraying insecticides). For fisheries, nowcasts could be life-saving and help to reduce fish losses.

The initial findings of the economic assessment of early warnings for Zambia were also shared. For this study, the value chain describes the inputs and steps to the outputs used to model early weather warnings for Zambia. A key part of the value chain is communicating the forecasts and messages to as many as possible, enabling them to respond appropriately.

The testbed participants were also reminded that the WISER EWSA project supports the international United Nations-led Early Warnings for All (EW4All) initiative. A presenter from SAWS said that WISER EWSA was “EW4All in action”. A presenter from the WMO gave an overview of the main tenets and objectives of EW4All and some of the progress made thus far in ensuring that every person on Earth is protected by early warning systems by 2027. Reportedly, 108 countries have strengthened their early warning systems.

The team was reminded that WISER EWSA focuses on one of the four pillars of EW4All – the pillar concerning dissemination of information. Effective realisation of this task does not result in an effective early warning system – every pillar, the responsibility of which falls to other stakeholders and disaster management strategies, is necessary to effect a successful system.

Among other findings, the technical team’s evaluations for part of the day showed the following.

For Zambia:

CRR projections matched the forward projection of cells that were already present, but missed the initiation of new cells;
Overall, the nowcast issued was good, but other products can be used to indicate initiation events; and
The ROA projection is a better product than CRR in forward projection.

For Mozambique:

ROA and CRR picked up a high concentration of rainfall over the impacted regions;
CRR projection propagated the cells well but missed the new initiation;
Rainfall and convective activity observed a level 2 warning; and
The nowcast was good. However, observations showed little convection activity in the northwest part of Mozambique.

During the morning, the 16 Satellite Disaster Management Committee (SDMC) members (who play the role of community mobilisers) undertook a social network mapping exercise. They were tasked with tracking the onward reach of forecasts and nowcasts received by the SDMCs from ZMD. Each SDMC member forwards the messages directly to between 10 and 1 408 people, considering face-to-face and electronic transmission. Primary communication occurs with family members, tenants, work colleagues, churches and their congregations, schools, persons with disability and WhatsApp groups (based on politics, sport, community and friends). Efforts were also made to identify the next stage of transmission, whereby these recipients further disseminate the information among their own networks.

The group then compiled a PowerPoint presentation which outlined how they conduct their work and some of the activities that they have undertaken during the king-size testbed (October 2024–April 2025). Counterparts in Boane and Katlehong had developed similar presentations, which were facilitated by the relevant community engagement leads in each country, who then shared them during the intensive testbed. The reciprocal presentation from the Kanyama SDMCs will be shared in South Africa and Mozambique in the coming weeks as part of regional exchange and learning.

In the afternoon, after listening to presentations on different aspects of the project’s work – including evaluation of intensive nowcasting events during the king-size testbed using their feedback, the group reflected on the testbed (both the king-size and intensive) to date, and future plans. They also participated in individual interviews to elaborate on their motivations for undertaking the voluntary roles of community mobilisation and SDMCs, and to give personal examples of how they have used weather information to date.

Intensive testbed: Daily update, 7 February 2025

The last day of the intensive testbed included a continuation of product testing and evaluation as well as sessions to reflect on the lessons learnt throughout the testbed and the focus areas for the king-size testbed which will continue until April 2025.

Lessons learnt by the technical team include that AI prediction models appear useful but they require quantitative (statistical) evaluation. ROA, K-index, etc. are useful for predicting where things may happen.

Lightning products are useful but one needs to evaluate how much is reaching the ground. It indicates the presence of intense convection and is useful for nowcasters. Total lightning can be used to indicate the leading edge of the thunderstorms, and in future, lightning could be used to construct a cost-effective radar.

Different platforms (UKCEH, Windy) can be used. The RSMC page needs significant investment – it would be helpful to have a website where everything can be layered, so forecasters can draw accurate warning areas, and don’t waste time flipping between websites. The intercomparison of products was also raised as important.

Regarding operating procedures and the creation of warnings, the team felt that impact tables should be adapted to each country and should consider the language relevant to each country. The team also discussed whether colours should be used instead of warning levels; how a nowcast should be handled when a warning has already gone out; and how nowcasting could become a sustainable practice for each of the countries, with the products they have available to them.

Other issues discussed include the need to update the nowcast if the weather changes, which could be quick; the continued simplification of the nowcasting template for use during the remainder of the king-size testbed; nowcasts when no impact is expected; and the need for radio messages in Zambia.

Nowcasting thresholds require further dialogue as there were missed intensive nowcast events for Kanyama due to the threshold being too large; however, for other areas, this might not be the case.

The team agreed that impacts are difficult to evaluate. Ground-based evidence such as photos, videos, and Satellite Disaster Management Committee (SDMC) feedback, is crucial. The rescue services could also assist with this type of information by reporting impacts when they happen. Another alternative is to use social media to get some idea of what has happened – these sources are not verified but could still be useful.

Going forward, a focus must be on increasing the number of people receiving weather information. Regular SDMC meetings are vital as are the continued identification of disabled people and reaching out to other community structures such as churches.

The 16 SDMC members, who play the role of community mobilisers, spent the last day of the intensive testbed with the technical team. The group evaluated the intensive testbed and reflected on the activities in both the king-size and intensive testbeds. To date, in the king-size testbed, the SDMCs have been meeting regularly (fortnightly) and visiting individuals in their communities to identify the persons with disabilities and their particular weather information needs. Based on a suggestion from one of these meetings, they have been visiting churches in Kanyama to share weather information. They have also been verifying the occurrence of rainfall daily through a Google form. Feedback received to date is that the Kanyama community members appreciate receiving weather information, with some people actively seeking out the SDMCs for updates, demonstrating increased demand.

For the remainder of the king-size testbed, they will continue this approach with some minor modifications. The first step will be to try and increase the number of people who receive weather information directly from ZMD. This will be done by encouraging people with smartphones to join the ZMD WISER EWSA Kanyama SDMC Whatsapp group, on which forecasts and nowcasts are disseminated. They will also collect phone numbers of those without smartphones which ZMD will then manually add to the SMS list (which currently is only available for self-subscription by people with smartphones). This will free up the time of the SDMCs to share information by word of mouth with the most marginalised members of the community who cannot follow either of these options (e.g. a blind person without a smartphone – as voice notes are only available on smartphones). ZMD has committed to sending text-only versions of the nowcasts (as well as the forecasts) to the SMS list as well as the full version on WhatsApp.

For the remainder of the rainy season, the SDMCs will endeavour to provide daily feedback on the Google form – regardless of whether there has been rain. This is in response to a request from nowcast evaluators to verify dry conditions as well as wet. They will also continue – and ramp up – their engagement with key community leaders (including councillors, Ward Development Committees, and chairpersons). Feedback will be sought from community members on forecasts and nowcasts, taking into account the need to do so with sound ethical and safeguarding practices

Intensive testbed: Daily update, 6 February 2025