Observed and forecast tracks: southern hemisphere 2022-23

Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from [email protected]. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.

South-West Indian (west of 90°E)
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Ashley (02S) 26-28 September 999 mb, 40/35 knots Ashley was short-lived with only one forecast verified.
Balita (03S) 06-09 October 996 mb, 40/35 knots Track forecast errors at longer lead times were below the recent mean values.
Darian (05S) * 18-31 December 920 mb, 135/120 knots Track errors were low and skill scores high for this first intense cyclone of the season.
Cheneso (08S) 17-30 January 959 mb, 80/80 knots Some early forecasts did not predict the track of Cheneso across Madagascar well, but over the whole lifetime of the cyclone track forecast errors were low.
Freddy (11S) * 06 February - 13 March 931 mb, 140/120 knots Track forecast errors were lower than the recent mean values and skill scores were high for this record breaking cyclone. There was a slight right-of-track bias overall, mainly apparent as Freddy approached landfall over Madagascar.
Dingani (13S) 09-16 February 971 mb, 80/75 knots Track forecast errors were near to the recent average at short lead times, but above average at longer lead times due to a right-of-track bias.
Enala (14S) 22 February-01 March 982 mb, 75/65 knots Track forecast errors were below the recent average at short lead times, but above average at longer lead times due to a right-of-track bias.
Fabien (19S) 14-22 May 962 mb, 100/90 knots Track errors were close to the recent mean at short lead times, but lower than the mean at longer lead times.

* Darian and Freddy originated in the Australian region.

Tropical cyclone names

South-west Indian observed tracks in 2022-23

Australian (90-160°E) - including Indonesia and PNG
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

01S

28-31 July 994 mb, 40/40 knots Track foecast errors were low for this unusual July storm.
04S 03-06 November 1004 mb, 35/30 knots 04S was briefly classified as a storm by JTWC and passed into the South-West Indian region before dissipation.
Darian (05S) * 18-31 December 920 mb, 135/120 knots Track errors were low and skill scores high for this first intense cyclone of the season.
Ellie (06S) 22-23 December 990 mb, 40/40 knots Ellie was short-lived before landfall, although the circulation persisted overland for many days.
Freddy (11S) * 06 February - 13 March 931 mb, 140/120 knots Track forecast errors were lower than the recent mean values and skill scores were high for this record breaking cyclone. There was a slight right-of-track bias overall, mainly apparent as Freddy approached landfall over Madagascar.
Gabrielle (12P) 08-12 February 959 mb, 90/80 knots Track forecast errors were very low for this cyclone.
Herman (17S) 29 March - 02 April 935 mb, 110/110 knots A slow bias resulted in longer range forecast errors being above the recent mean values.
Ilsa (18S) 08-14 April 919 mb, 140/115 knots Track forecast errors were mostly very low and skill scores high for Ilsa. Only the first couple of forecasts had a fast bias at longer lead times.

* Darian and Freddy moved into the South-West Indian region.

Tropical Cyclone Names

Fiji (east of 160°E)
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Hale (07P) 06-08 January 992 mb, 45/40 knots Hale was short-lived, but a slow bias resulted in large track forecast errors for the few forecasts which were verified.
Irene (09P) 17-18 January 985 mb, 50/55 knots A slow bias resulted in large track forecast errors.
10P 20-21 January 996 mb, 35/30 knots No forecasts were verified for this short-lived storm.
Judy (15P) 27 February - 04 March 945 mb, 110/95 knots There was a right-of-track and slow bias for this cyclone meaning track errors were higher than the recent mean values.
Kevin (16P) 01-06 March 915 mb, 140/115 knots The direction of motion was well predicted, but a slow bias resulted in larger errors at longer lead times.

Tropical Cyclone Names

Western Australian observed tracks in 2022-23

Eastern Australian observed tracks in 2022-23

South Atlantic
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

 

     

Tropical cyclone names

South Atlantic observed tracks in 2022-23

Note on estimated wind speeds

1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over one minute (JTWC Hawaii)
10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (Southern Hemisphere RSMCs and TCWCs)

Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 10-minute average, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres using different analysis techniques.