Observed and forecast tracks: northern hemisphere 2023

Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from [email protected]. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance of the Met Office global model will be published.

North-west Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Sanvu (01W) 19-22 April 998 mb, 45/45 knots No forecasts were verified as Sanvu forecasts had a weak bias and the storm could not be tracked.
Mawar (02W) 20 May-03 June 905 mb, 160/115 knots Track forecast errors were mostly below the recent mean. Some forecasts had large errors due to a left-of-track bias.
Guchol (03W) 06-12 June 970 mb, 90/75 knots Track forecast errors were very low for this typhoon.
Talim (04W) 14-18 July 970 mb, 70/60 knots Track forecast errors were below the recent mean for this typhoon.
Doksuri (05W) 21-28 July 925 mb, 130/100 knots Track forecast errors were mostly well below the recent mean values.
Khanun (06W) 27 July - 10 August 930 mb, 120/95 knots Track forecast errors were low at short lead times, but high at longer lead times due to some forecasts predicting a China landfall instead of a reversal of direction.
Lan (07W) 07-17 August 940 mb, 115/90 knots Track forecast errors were below the recent mean values.
Damrey (08W) 23-29 August 985 mb, 65/45 knots Track forecast errors were low for this storm.
Saola (09W) 23 August - 03 September 920 mb, 135/105 knots Track forecast errors were remarkably low for this typhoon despite its complex motion early in its lifetime.
Haikui (10W) 28 August - 04 September 955 mb, 105/85 knots There was a right-of-track bias in forecasts for Haikui resulting in large track forecast errors.
Kirogi (11W) 30 August - 04 September 992 mb, 60/50 knots Track forecast errors were a little above recent mean values.
Yun-yeung (12W) 05-08 September 996 mb, 40/45 knots Track forecast errors were near to the recent mean.
13W 25-26 September 1001 mb, 30/25 knots No forecasts were verified for this depression.
Koinu (14W) 29 September - 10 October 940 mb, 120/90 knots Early forecasts incorrectly stalled Koinu east of Taiwan. Later forecasts were better, but there was a low detection percentage at longer lead times.
Bolaven (15W) 07-14 October 900 mb, 155/115 knots Although the direction of motion was well predicted, track forecast errors were large at longer lead times due to a slow bias.
Sanba (16W) 17-21 October 1000 mb, 40/40 knots Sanba was relatively short-lived with track forecast errors above the recent mean values.
17W 12-13 November 1004 mb, 25/- knots 17W did not reach tropical storm status.
Jelawat (18W) 17-18 December 1002 mb, 40/40 knots Jelawat was short-lived with few forecasts verified.

North-west observed tracks in 2023

Tropical cyclone names

North-east Pacific
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

Adrian (01E)

27 June - 02 July 970 mb, 90 knots Track forecast errors were above the recent mean for this hurricane.
Beatriz (02E) 29 June - 01 July 991 mb, 75 knots Track forecast errors were a little higher than the recent mean.
Calvin (03E) 11-19 July 955 mb, 110 knots There was a fast bias resulting in longer lead time errors being larger than average. Short lead time errors were low.
04E 21-22 July 1006 mb, 30 knots No forecasts were verified for this tropical depression.
Dora (05E) 31 July - 16 August 942 mb, 125 knots Track forecast errors were below the recent mean values at all, but the shortest lead times.
Eugene (06E) 05-07 August 992 mb, 60 knots Eugene was short-lived with track forecast errors close to the recent mean values.
Fernanda (07E) 12-17 August 955 mb, 115 knots Forecast tracks were too fast resulting in errors above the recent mean values.
Greg (08E) 14 - 18 August 1000 mb, 45 knots Track forecast errors were close to or below the recent mean values.
Hilary (09E) 16-21 August 939 mb, 125 knots Track forecasts were slow and with a left-of-track bias, resulting in large errors overall.
Irwin (10E) 27-29 August 997 mb, 35 knots Track forecast errors were close to the recent mean values.
Jova (11E) 04-10 September 929 mb, 140 knots There was a left-of-track bias resulting in larger than normal track forecast errors.
12E 15-17 September 1006 mb, 30 knots No forecasts were verified for this depression.
Kenneth (13E) 19-22 September 1000 mb, 45 knots There was a left-of-track bias for this storm.
14E 23-25 September 1007 mb, 30 knots No forecasts were verified for this depression.
Lidia (15E) 03-11 October 942 mb, 120 knots Track forecast errors were above average and particularly large at long lead times due to the failure of early forecasts to predict recurvature back towards Mexico.
Max (16E) 08-10 October 995 mb, 50 knots Max was a short-lived tropical storm.
Norma (17E) 17-23 October 944 mb, 115 knots Due to a left-of-track bias, track forecast errors were mostly above the recent mean values.
Otis (18E) 22-26 October 923 mb, 145 knots Track forecast errors were large due to a slow bias and the global model failed to predict the rapid intensification prior to landfall.
Pilar (19E) 28 October-06 November 996 mb, 50 knots Track forecasts were below the recent average at longer lead times. There was a slight slow bias.
Ramon (20E) 23-26 November 1002 mb, 40 knots Ramon was a relatively short-lived storm.

 

Central North Pacific

Name & ID Start & end dates Central Pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

Dora (05E)

31 July - 16 August 942 mb, 125 knots

Track forecast errors were below the recent mean values at all, but the shortest lead times.

* Dora originated in the eastern Pacific region

North-east and Central North Pacific observed tracks in 2023

Tropical cyclone names (North-east Pacific)

Tropical cyclone names (Central North Pacific)

North Atlantic
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

01L

15-17 January 982 mb, 55 knots 01L was designated a subtropical storm after the event, so did not receive a name. Forecast tracks were very good.
Arlene (02L) 01-03 June 998 mb, 35 knots Arlene was only briefly a tropical storm.
Bret (03L) 19-24 June 996 mb, 60 knots Track forecast errors were mixed for Bret.
Cindy (04L) 22-26 June 1001 mb, 50 knots Track forecast errors were near to or below the recent mean for this storm.
Don (05L) 14-24 July 988 mb, 65 knots Track forecast errors were well below the recent mean values and skill scores high.
Emily (07L) 20-21 August 1001 mb, 45 knots Emily was a short-lived storm.
Franklin (08L) 20 August - 01 September 926 mb, 130 knots Track forecasts were mixed for Franklin. There was a fast bias at longer lead times.
Gert (06L) 19 August - 04 September 997 mb, 50 knots Only a few forecasts were verified for Gert. Track forecast errors were near the recent mean.
Harold (09L) 21-23 August 998 mb, 45 knots No forecasts were verified for this short-lived storm.
Idalia (10L) 26-31 August 940 mb, 115 knots Track forecasts were mostly above the recent mean due to a slow bias.
Jose (11L) 29 August - 02 September 997 mb, 50 knots Due to merger with other storms few forecasts were verified.
Katia (12L) 01-04 September 998 mb, 50 knots Katia was fairly short-lived as a storm.
Lee (13L) 05-16 September 926 mb, 145 knots Despite slow and left-of-track biases, track forecast errors were below the recent mean values for this hurricane.
Margot (14L) 07-17 September 970 mb, 80 knots Track forecast errors were mostly below the recent mean values.
Nigel (15L) 15-22 September 971 mb, 85 knots Track forecasts were mostly very good for Hurricane Nigel.
Ophelia (16L) 22-24 September 981 mb, 60 knots Ophelia was short-lived as a tropical storm.
Philippe (17L) 23 September - 06 October 998 mb, 45 knots Track forecast errors were above the recent mean values. The early slow down and dip towards the caribbean was not well predicted. Later forecasts had a right-of-track bias.
Rina (18L) 28 September - 02 October 999 mb, 45 knots Track forecast errors were above the recent mean values at longer lead times.
Sean (19L) 11-16 October 1004 mb, 40 knots Track forecast errors were mixed for this storm.
Tammy (20L) 18-29 October 965 mb, 90 knots There was a slow bias resulting in large forecast errors.
21L 23-24 October 1007 mb, 25 knots 21L did not attain tropical storm status.

North Atlantic observed tracks in 2023

Tropical cyclone names

North Indian
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/3-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts

Mocha (01B)

10-15 May 918 mb, 140/115 knots Track errors were mostly close to the recent mean values. There was a slow bias in forecasts.
Biparjoy (02A) 06-16 June 945 mb, 105/90 knots Despite an initial left-of-track bias, track errors were below the recent mean values.
03B 09-10 June 991 mb, 40/30 knots 03B was a short-lived storm.
04B 31 July - 01 August 987 mb, 40/30 knots 04B was a short-lived storm.
Tej (05A) 20-24 October 956 mb, 110/95 knots Track forecast errors were near to or slightly above the recent mean values.
Hamoon (06B) 23-25 October 978 mb, 80/65 knots There was a slow bias in forecasts.
Midhili (07B) 16-17 November 1001 mb, 40/35 knots Midhili was only briefly a tropical storm.
Michaung (08B) 03-05 December 987 mb, 60/55 knots Track forecasts were near to or a little below the recent mean values.

North Indian observed tracks in 2023

Tropical cyclone names

Mediterranean
Name & ID Start & end dates Central pressure, 1-/10-minute MSW Comments on Met Office global model forecasts
Daniel (01M) 08-11 September 995 mb, 45 knots Daniel is assessed as having acquired tropical characteristics prior to landfall over Libya. Forecasts leading up to this time mostly predicted landfall a little farther south than actually occurred, but gave an indication of heavy rainfall after moving inland.

Note, there is no official warning agency for Mediterranean tropical or subtropical cyclones, so identifiers are assigned by the Met Office to facilitate tracking and forecast verification.

Mediterranean observed tracks in 2023

Note on estimated wind speeds

1-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 1 minute (JTWC Hawaii, NHC Miami, CPHC Hawaii)

3-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 3 minutes (IMD New Delhi)

10-minute MSW: Maximum sustained wind (knots) averaged over 10 minutes (JMA Japan)


Note: Although 1-minute average winds should be stronger than 3-/10-minute averages, this may not be the case here since estimates are obtained from different warning centres using different analysis techniques.