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Long range forecast

Long range forecast

Amber warning

Amber weather warning in force for the UK

Sunday 23 Jun - Tuesday 2 Jul

Predominantly fine and settled through the period and for much of the country turning much warmer than we have seen in recent weeks. At first some thicker cloud could bring some outbreaks of mostly light rain, this mainly affecting western, especially northwestern areas. However for most it will be dry throughout, and likely to turn increasingly warm as we move into next week. There is a chance that this could persist for much of the rest of the period, turning increasingly hot, however by mid-next week we see a large range of outcomes. some of which allow for a return of much cooler conditions and northerly winds for the latter part of next week. However the trend toward much warmer conditions is preferred for now.

Wednesday 3 Jul - Wednesday 17 Jul

There is little sign for any one type of weather pattern to dominate during this period. As such, typical conditions for the UK are most probable with a mixture of weather types. All areas can expected to see some spells of drier, sunnier weather, but there will also be showers or longer spells of rain at times. Currently the only signals, weak as they are, hint that rain and showers will tend to be more biased towards the north and west, with any more prolonged drier interludes favouring the south. Temperatures are slightly more likely than normal to be above average, than below.

Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?


Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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