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Long range forecast

Long range forecast

Monday 26 Feb - Wednesday 6 Mar

A day or two of mostly settled and dry weather is likely at the start of this period, after any lingering rain clears the far south. Temperatures will be close to average, with some night time frosts, but will feel like a marked contrast to the mild conditions of recent weeks. After this, a generally unsettled pattern is most likely to resume and continue through to early March. Spells of rain are expected across all areas at times, wettest overall in the west and northwest, where it will also sometimes be windy. Temperatures are most likely to be around or a little above average, though some short-lived colder interludes that would allow sleet or snow to fall to lower levels are possible at times, these more likely in the north.

Thursday 7 Mar - Thursday 21 Mar

An initial continuation of unsettled conditions is most likely in this period, with low pressure systems likely to continue to cross west to east over or close to the UK, with mostly short-lived spells of drier and brighter weather between times. Temperatures are likely to be near or slightly above normal overall, with occasional night frosts, but values will fluctuate as weather systems come and go. From mid-March, the chance of a longer period of more settled and drier weather increases.

Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?


Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.

Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).

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