Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Tuesday 7 Jan - Thursday 16 Jan
Much of this period is likely to remain colder than average, with an ongoing risk of ice and frost. There will also likely be wintry or snow showers at times along coastal areas exposed to onshore winds, these occasionally feeding farther inland, but interspersed with some lengthy dry and clear spells. Some longer spells of rain, perhaps preceded by some sleet and snow, may push into some southern and/or western areas as Atlantic frontal systems attempt to make some progress into the UK, perhaps also introducing something briefly milder. Towards mid-January there may be a trend towards less-cold conditions more generally, but perhaps with high pressure nearby which could result in fairly settled conditions with an increasing chance of fog.
Thursday 16 Jan - Thursday 30 Jan
Slowly-evolving weather patterns look most likely through the second half of January, with high pressure often in the vicinity of the UK, although the flavour of the weather we experience depends on where the high and low pressure centres are relative to the UK. There are currently no strong signals for prolonged cold but spells of cold weather are likely, with frost, fog, and wintry showers. Pulses of more unsettled weather are more likely across the south than the north, and may bring milder conditions for a time too.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).