Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Monday 18 Nov - Wednesday 27 Nov
Frequent wintry showers are expected, mainly in the north and along eastern and western coasts where exposed to the strong north to northwesterly flow. Snow is likely to fall to low levels, especially in the north. Many inland areas may be largely dry with lengthy sunny spells, especially where sheltered from the flow. However, there is a risk of some more organised areas of rain and hill snow running east across more southern parts. The chance of any widespread or disruptive snowfall affecting more populated areas at this stage remains low though. Cold everywhere with overnight frost, and the strong winds will result in significant wind chill. There is a hint that it may become less cold later in the period, with more of a westerly flow becoming established.
Thursday 28 Nov - Thursday 12 Dec
Signals vary in prevailing weather patterns through this period but likely mainly unsettled and rather cold for the start of the period. There is a chance of more mobile weather patterns which would see Atlantic systems periodically move across the country. These will bring some wetter and windier interludes with a risk of some snow, especially for hills of the north. A trend toward less mobile weather or more settled conditions is favoured into December, although some wetter and windier interludes remain likely at times. Temperatures also trending closer to average, especially in the south.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).