Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Sunday 22 Sep - Tuesday 1 Oct
Showers or longer spells of rain, heavy and perhaps thundery, will affect parts of England and Wales at first, especially in the south and southwest but tending to ease away to the southeast early next week. Elsewhere, generally settled conditions prevailing, albeit with low cloud and drizzle along North Sea coasts in particular; away from here, most places will experience above average temperatures during this period. A short-lived quieter spell of weather is possible during the first part of next week, before a transition to a more unsettled, mobile westerly pattern is most likely by midweek and beyond, with spells of wind and rain in many areas, but perhaps interspersed with occasional drier and brighter interludes.
Wednesday 2 Oct - Wednesday 16 Oct
Typical autumn weather will probably affect the UK with a mix of weather types through the first half of October. Periods of unsettled conditions, with wind and rain at times, will likely be interspersed with shorter spells of calmer and drier weather. Overall, wetter than average conditions are expected during this period, especially in central and southern areas. Temperatures are most likely to be close to or slightly above average overall, although some cooler spells are possible at times.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).