Future weather and climate risks

Our climate has already warmed by around 1°C since the 1850s, and we expect further warming in the future.

Some warming is already inevitable due to historical emissions. The amount of further warming we could avoid depends on our ability to cut emissions. This means there are a range of different possible pathways of warming.

Some of the key questions we are trying to answer are:

• How will weather and climate evolve over the next century in different parts of the world and under different climate scenarios?
• How will climate change affect extreme weather events? This question considers:
  • Geographical location
  • Duration
  • Frequency
  • Intensity
• What are the risks and impacts of climate variability and change? We look at this question on both a global and UK scale. We also consider a range of timescales, looking to the end of the century and beyond.

How do we answer these questions?

We produce a range of deliverables to help answer this question. Our verbal and written advice includes briefings, reports, expert reviews, model development, and website content.

Here are some of the main things we deliver:

UK Climate Projections (UKCP)

The UK Climate Projections (UKCP) provides the most up-to-date assessment of how the climate of the UK may change over the 21st century.

• View the latest UK Climate Projections

Support for UNFCCC COP

Each year, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) holds an annual action summit on climate change, the Conference of the Parties (COP) meeting. Delegates from around the world come together to discuss the science of climate change. They lay out their own countries’ plans and ambitions to meet climate targets and explore possible solutions. The Met Office provides support to this important conference.

• Read more about how the Met Office contributes to COP

The Met Office website

We update the climate science pages of Met Office website. This includes a central resource that ties together information on extreme weather events.

• View the latest research on extreme weather events

Near-term prediction

We provide annual and decadal temperature forecasts. The latter includes the risk of exceeding 1.5°C warming above pre-industrial levels.

• Read more about near-term prediction

Thresholds and tipping points

We provide updated assessments of tipping points and thresholds in the climate system.

• Risk management of climate thresholds and feedbacks:

  • Introduction and synthesis (PDF - 476KB)

  • Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) (PDF - 497KB)

  • Ice sheets (PDF - 318KB)

  • Tropical forests (PDF - 433KB)

  • A seasonally ice-free Arctic (PDF - 425KB)

  • Permafrost (PDF - 483KB)

Updates to climate models

UKESM1 and HadGEM3-GC3.1 are two state-of-the-art climate models. We use these to study the Earth-system and climate. They are both the result of years of work, featuring a host of advances over previous models.

• Read more about UKESM1 and HadGEM3-GC3.1

Research from the Met Office Hadley Centre

Scientists at the Met Office Hadley Centre also publish papers in leading scientific journals. The team collaborates with other institutes from around the world.

Names in bold are lead authors from the Met Office.

2020 papers

• Tinker et al. Dynamical downscaling of unforced interannual sea-level variability in the North-West European shelf seas
• Fosser et al. Convection-Permitting Models Offer Promise of More Certain Extreme Rainfall Projections
• Ronalds et al. North Pacific zonal wind response to sea ice loss in the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project and its downstream implications
• Jackson et al. Impact of ocean resolution and mean state on the rate of AMOC weakening
• Tsushima et al. Investigating physical constraints on climate feedbacks using a perturbed parameter ensemble
• Christidis et al. The increasing likelihood of temperatures above 30 to 40 degrees C in the United Kingdom
• Chan et al. Europe-wide precipitation projections at convection permitting scale with the Unified Model
• McNeall et al. Correcting a bias in a climate model with an augmented emulator
• Notz et al. Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6
• Roach et al. Antarctic Sea Ice Area in CMIP6
• Li et al. Global distribution of the intensity and frequency of hourly precipitation and their responses to ENSO
• Jacob et al. Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community
• Butchart et al. QBO Changes in CMIP6 Climate Projections
• Ayarzaguena et al. Uncertainty in the Response of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings and Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling to Quadrupled CO2 Concentrations in CMIP6 Models
• Moreton et al. Evaluating surface eddy properties in coupled climate simulations with 'eddy-present' and 'eddy-rich' ocean resolution
• Rugstein et al. Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimated by Equilibrating Climate Models
• Richter et al. Response of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation to a warming climate in global climate models
• Bateson et al. Impact of sea ice floe size distribution on seasonal fragmentation and melt of Arctic sea ice
• Fosser et al. Optimal configuration and resolution for the first convection-permitting ensemble of climate projections over the United Kingdom

2019 papers

• Roberts et al. Description of the resolution hierarchy of the global coupled HadGEM3-GC3.1 model as used in CMIP6 HighResMIP experiments
• Berthou et al. Larger Future Intensification of Rainfall in the West African Sahel in a Convection-Permitting Model
• Lin et al. Uncertainty in the Evolution of Climate Feedback Traced to the Strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
• van der Wal et al. Uncertainties in Long-Term Twenty-First Century Process-Based Coastal Sea-Level Projections
• Hodnebrog et al. Water vapour adjustments and responses differ between climate drivers
• Haskins et al. Temperature domination of AMOC weakening due to freshwater hosing in two GCMs
• Docquier et al. Impact of model resolution on Arctic sea ice and North Atlantic Ocean heat transport
• Berthou et al. Improved climatological precipitation characteristics over West Africa at convection-permitting scales
• West et al. Induced surface fluxes: a new framework for attributing Arctic sea ice volume balance biases to specific model errors
• Kendon et al. Enhanced future changes in wet and dry extremes over Africa at convection-permitting scale
• Hinkel et al. Meeting User Needs for Sea Level Rise Information: A Decision Analysis Perspective

2018 papers

• Richardson et al. Drivers of Precipitation Change: An Energetic Understanding
• Myhre et al. Quantifying the Importance of Rapid Adjustments for Global Precipitation Changes
• Jackson and Wood. Timescales of AMOC decline in response to fresh water forcing
• Gaertner et al. Simulation of medicanes over the Mediterranean Sea in a regional climate model ensemble: impact of ocean-atmosphere coupling and increased resolution
• Schiemann et al. Mean and extreme precipitation over European river basins better simulated in a 25km AGCM
• Osborn et al. Performance of Pattern-Scaled Climate Projections under High-End Warming. Part I: Surface Air Temperature over Land
• Dhomse et al. Estimates of ozone return dates from Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative simulations
• Son et al. Tropospheric jet response to Antarctic ozone depletion: An update with Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) models
• Maher et al. The Impact of Parameterized Convection on Climatological Precipitation in Atmospheric Global Climate Models
• Harrison et al. Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods
• Li et al. Evaluating Global Land Surface Models in CMIP5: Analysis of Ecosystem Water- and Light-Use Efficiencies and Rainfall Partitioning
• Williamson et al. Effect of AMOC collapse on ENSO in a high resolution general circulation model